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Clean Sheet Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest clean sheet probability — Tuesday 28 February 2023

Our prediction model calculates the probability that each team concedes zero goals based on their defensive strength and the opponent's attack rating. Fixtures at the top of this list have the highest probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet — making them strong candidates for to-nil and correct score markets.

17 matches cleared our threshold on Tuesday 28 February 2023. Derby vs Cheltenham led the list at 48% in the League One. The shortlist runs from 48% down to 22%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

League Two supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the clean sheet market — 41%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 League One · England
Derby
2 : 0 FT
Cheltenham
✓ Win 69%
Draw 19%
Win 12%
Over 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS No 54%
#2 Serie A · Italy
Cremonese
2 : 1 FT
AS Roma
Win 15%
Draw 23%
Win 62%
Under 2.5 54% BTTS No 56%
#3 Serie B · Italy
Palermo
0 : 0 FT
Ternana
Win 50%
Draw 30%
Win 20%
✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 59%
#4 League Two · England
Gillingham
0 : 2 FT
Bradford
Win 26%
Draw 32%
✓ Win 43%
✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 64%
#5 League Two · England
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 3 FT
Stevenage
Win 38%
Draw 33%
Win 29%
Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 66%
#6 League Two · England
Tranmere
1 : 0 FT
Crawley Town
✓ Win 53%
Draw 26%
Win 21%
✓ Under 2.5 59% ✓ BTTS No 57%
#7 League One · England
Lincoln
1 : 1 FT
Milton Keynes Dons
Win 46%
Draw 29%
Win 25%
✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 60%
#8 Championship · England
Preston
0 : 0 FT
Coventry
Win 25%
Draw 30%
Win 45%
✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 58%
#9 Serie B · Italy
Parma
0 : 1 FT
Pisa
Win 31%
Draw 35%
Win 34%
✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#10 Serie A · Italy
Juventus
4 : 2 FT
Torino
✓ Win 48%
Draw 27%
Win 25%
Under 2.5 57% BTTS No 53%
#11 Championship · England
Luton
2 : 2 FT
Millwall
Win 36%
Draw 32%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%
#12 Premier League · Ukraine
Minai
1 : 4 FT
Shakhtar Donetsk
Win 28%
Draw 28%
✓ Win 44%
Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 54%
#13 Serie B · Italy
Cosenza
2 : 1 FT
Reggina
✓ Win 35%
Draw 32%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 57%
#14 League Two · England
Harrogate Town
1 : 1 FT
Northampton
Win 24%
Draw 24%
Win 52%
Over 2.5 53% ✓ BTTS Yes 55%
#15 League Two · England
Barrow
1 : 1 FT
Salford City
Win 30%
Draw 27%
Win 43%
✓ Under 2.5 54%
#16 League One · England
Portsmouth
3 : 1 FT
Bolton
Win 35%
Draw 27%
Win 38%
Under 2.5 55%
#17 League One · England
Peterborough
0 : 0 FT
Charlton
Win 42%
Draw 23%
Win 34%
Over 2.5 63% BTTS Yes 64%

Showing top 17 fixtures by clean sheet probability. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Clean Sheet — common questions

What does the Clean Sheet market mean?

Clean Sheet settles on whether a match sees at least one team keep a clean sheet. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate clean sheet probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The clean-sheet probability shown here is the probability that a given side concedes zero, from the opponent's expected-goals figure. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Clean Sheet on Tuesday 28 February 2023?

17 fixtures met the criteria, led by Derby vs Cheltenham at 48% clean-sheet probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with the highest clean-sheet probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these clean sheet predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.