Tranmere 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tranmere at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tranmere vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 22 as Tranmere welcome Crawley Town to Prenton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tranmere stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tranmere's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Prenton Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Crawley Town away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Tranmere are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tranmere, 0 for Crawley Town and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Tranmere winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tranmere trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 33% versus Crawley Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 28% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.48 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.972 / defence 0.863 | Crawley Town attack 0.865 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.109. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Tranmere's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Tranmere games / 76 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 4.76. Tranmere hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tranmere at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tranmere offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tranmere 30% | Crawley Town 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Tranmere 1.48 / Crawley Town 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.972 / def 0.863 | Crawley Town attack 0.865 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Crawley Town xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Crawley Town kick off?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Tranmere 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Tranmere vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Crawley Town part of?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 53% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Tranmere and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Tranmere 2W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Tranmere and Crawley Town in?
Tranmere (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (0.97) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.78
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.31
0.83
Crawley Town xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tranmere and 0.83 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tranmere come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 18D 26L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.14 PPG from 76 outings (23W 18D 35L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tranmere on 1.50 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tranmere's home form reads 22W 7D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.89 points per game from 38 outings (8W 10D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tranmere are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 62%.
Defensively: Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 32W 18D 26L in their last 76 games (1.50 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 23W 18D 35L in their last 76 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Crawley Town away?
Tranmere's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.92 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tranmere and Crawley Town runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tranmere have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Tranmere's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tranmere
0
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 29%, Crawley Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Tranmere) and 55% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Crawley Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Tranmere's recent matches and 63% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Tranmere's recent games and 55% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Tranmere have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tranmere edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.48 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Crawley Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 79/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 28%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.50 PPG, Crawley Town 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.