Peterborough 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as Peterborough welcome Charlton to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Peterborough 1.90 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Peterborough, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 46% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.72 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.261 / defence 1.380 | Charlton attack 1.010 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.101. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Peterborough games / 78 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 42% | Draw 23% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 60% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 42% | Draw 23% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Peterborough 1.72 / Charlton 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.261 / def 1.380 | Charlton attack 1.010 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Charlton xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Charlton kick off?
Peterborough vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Peterborough 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Peterborough vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Charlton part of?
Peterborough vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Peterborough and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.26x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.33
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.26
1.53
Charlton xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.53 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 25W 12D 40L from 77 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 33L across 77 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.13 PPG, Charlton on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 16W 8D 14L from 38 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 11W 9D 18L across 38 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 25W 12D 40L in their last 77 games (1.13 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 17D 33L in their last 77 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Charlton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.47 PPG; Charlton away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Charlton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Charlton?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Peterborough) and 50% (Charlton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Peterborough's matches and 50% of Charlton's.
Do Peterborough and Charlton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charlton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Peterborough and Charlton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.72 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.26 / defence 1.38 against Charlton attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 42% | Draw 23% | Charlton 34%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.13 PPG, Charlton 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.