Wuhan Zall 1-2 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall host Chongqing Lifan at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's home record at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chongqing Lifan — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Wuhan Zall) versus 0.90 (Chongqing Lifan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wuhan Zall, 0 for Chongqing Lifan and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Zall in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chongqing Lifan in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 62% versus Chongqing Lifan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 38% | Chongqing Lifan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.34 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.917 / defence 1.150 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.763 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Wuhan Zall games / 14 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 29%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Chongqing Lifan 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 80% | Chongqing Lifan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.34 / Chongqing Lifan 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.917 / def 1.150 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.763 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chongqing Lifan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 07:30 on Monday 3 January 2022 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 2 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 40% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Lifan 0W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 0.92x the league average against Chongqing Lifan's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Lifan's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.19
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.13 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 11D 7L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Lifan sit at 0.81 PPG from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.95 PPG, Chongqing Lifan on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 2W 6D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Chongqing Lifan have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Zall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 0.90 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 7L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.20 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
1
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2022, when Wuhan Zall 1-2 Chongqing Lifan.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan?
Chongqing Lifan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Zall at 80%, Chongqing Lifan at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Zall) and 50% (Chongqing Lifan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Chongqing Lifan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wuhan Zall's games and 70% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 50% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chongqing Lifan defy the odds to beat Wuhan Zall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan beat Wuhan Zall 1-2 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.34 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.76 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 29%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chongqing Lifan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 38%, Chongqing Lifan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.95 PPG, Chongqing Lifan 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chongqing Lifan win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.