Henan Jianye 1-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Wuhan Zall in Super League, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 4D 1L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Zall have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Henan Jianye, 1.40 for Wuhan Zall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Henan Jianye 0W, Wuhan Zall 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 45% versus Wuhan Zall 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 15% | Wuhan Zall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.949 / defence 1.043 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.730 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Henan Jianye games / 14 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 33% | Wuhan Zall 26%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Wuhan Zall 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | Wuhan Zall 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 33% | Wuhan Zall 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Henan Jianye 1.28 / Wuhan Zall 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.949 / def 1.043 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.730 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wuhan Zall xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 41% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.95x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.73x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
41%
2.43
33%
3.06
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Wuhan Zall xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.98 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 6W 9D 5L from 20 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 11D 6L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.00 for Wuhan Zall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 1W 5D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 65%.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 6L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.90 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 22 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 60%, Wuhan Zall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Henan Jianye and 40% for Wuhan Zall.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Wuhan Zall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Henan Jianye's games and 50% of Wuhan Zall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 40% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Wuhan Zall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Wuhan Zall 1-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Zall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 33% | Wuhan Zall 26%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 15%, Wuhan Zall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.35 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.