Chongqing Lifan 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chongqing Lifan's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.90 PPG clear of Chongqing Lifan in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chongqing Lifan, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Lifan 50% versus Shanghai Shenhua 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.43 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.277 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Shanghai Shenhua bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Chongqing Lifan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chongqing Lifan games / 14 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 32% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chongqing Lifan 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 32% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.43 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / def 1.277 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Chongqing Lifan 0 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 32% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Lifan 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chongqing Lifan's attack at 1.00x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.98x) against Chongqing Lifan's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.61
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
3.05
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.62 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chongqing Lifan come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 4D 12L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Chongqing Lifan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chongqing Lifan's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.10 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Lifan
1
Draws
1
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 30%, Shanghai Shenhua 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chongqing Lifan) and 40% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 50% of games; Shanghai Shenhua in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Lifan play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chongqing Lifan vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chongqing Lifan's recent games and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Chongqing Lifan have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chongqing Lifan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 0-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.43 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 32% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 50%, Shanghai Shenhua 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.