Wuhan Three Towns 5-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host Wuhan Zall at Puwan Stadium in Super League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 8 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 8 games: 7W 1D 0L, averaging 2.75 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.38 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 4 home games: 4W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Zall stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wuhan Zall's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Wuhan Three Towns have the edge — a 1.55 PPG advantage (2.75 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Wuhan Zall 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Jun 2022, ended Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Wuhan Zall — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Wuhan Zall trading profile (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 62% and Wuhan Zall 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 88% | Wuhan Zall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.42 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.817 / defence 0.981 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.850 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.132. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack rating of 1.817 — their 2.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 8 games and Wuhan Zall's last 22.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 69% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Zall 12%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.45 | Draw 5.25 | Wuhan Zall 8.41. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 4 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 4 home games) | Wuhan Zall 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 69% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Zall 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.42 / Wuhan Zall 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.817 / def 0.981 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.850 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wuhan Zall xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Friday 8 July 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Three Towns 5 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 69% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.82x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 8 games and Wuhan Zall's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.25
12%
8.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.37
0.94
Wuhan Zall xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.41
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
95.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.94 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 8 games, going 7W 1D 0L for 2.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across their last 4 home games, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 3.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wuhan Zall in 62%.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 1D 0L in their last 8 games (2.75 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 3.00 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 8 July 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 July 2022: Wuhan Three Towns 5-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Wuhan Zall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Wuhan Zall 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Three Towns and 25% for Wuhan Zall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 25% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 25% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Wuhan Zall 5-0 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.42 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.94 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Zall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.82 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 8/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 69% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Zall 12%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 88%, Wuhan Zall 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.