Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Jinzhou Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Thursday 7 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shanghai Shenhua at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Hebei Zhongji's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 1.80 PPG lead over Hebei Zhongji (2.10 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Hebei Zhongji and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Jun 2022, ended Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Hebei Zhongji — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 57% versus Hebei Zhongji 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Hebei Zhongji 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.109 / defence 0.764 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.748 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.146. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.328 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Shanghai Shenhua have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Hebei Zhongji's projected output down. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 22 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 22.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.44 | Draw 4.76 | Hebei Zhongji 10.65. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (70%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 / Hebei Zhongji 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.109 / def 0.764 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.748 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Hebei Zhongji xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Thursday 7 July 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 70% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.11x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.75x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 22 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
70%
1.44
21%
4.76
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.74
0.66
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
85.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.66 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 15W 9D 6L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 15 home games (9W 5D 1L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 3D 10L from their last 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.67 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.13 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 7 July 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 July 2022: Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 53%, Hebei Zhongji 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 47% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 40% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 47% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 60% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Hebei Zhongji 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.66 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.11 / defence 0.76 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 43%, Hebei Zhongji 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.