Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guangzhou Evergrande FC face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jinzhou Stadium plays host to Guangzhou Evergrande FC versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 8 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jinzhou Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.86 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.711 / defence 0.954 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.035 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.119. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 22 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 27% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 27% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.86 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.711 / def 0.954 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.035 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 27% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (3 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.03x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
27%
3.74
34%
2.97
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.10 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 14W 5D 11L from 30 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 6L across 30 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Guangzhou Evergrande FC against 1.93 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 9W 3D 3L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.70 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 14W 5D 11L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 17W 7D 6L in their last 30 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.00 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 8 July 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%, SHANGHAI SIPG 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 53% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 60% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.86 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.10 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.03 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 27% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.57 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.