📰

Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. It was 0-1 at the break, with 3 further goals after it. Scorers: Jin Yonghao (45') · J. Cadiz (59') · C. Strandberg (71') · Y. Yeboah (75'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.76 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Jonoon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 77% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 72% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Qingdao Jonoon controlled the ball (53%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Wuhan Three Towns; yet the team on the ball still took it. Qingdao Jonoon shot more often (16 to 11, 4 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (0-1 at the interval). 3 of the 4 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics