Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Wuhan Three Towns 2W, Dalian Aerbin 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 50% versus Dalian Aerbin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 74% | Dalian Aerbin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.054 / defence 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.805 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.286. Data: 46 Wuhan Three Towns games / 46 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Dalian Aerbin 4.55. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Dalian Aerbin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 / Dalian Aerbin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.054 / def 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.805 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dalian Aerbin xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.81x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.60
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
22.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.02 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 25W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 13W 9D 12L from 34 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2.18 PPG from 17 outings (12W 1D 4L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.18 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-0 on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Dalian Aerbin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Wuhan Three Towns and 71% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 47% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 71% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Three Towns's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 74%, Dalian Aerbin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.