Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Dalian Aerbin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2022, ended Wuhan Three Towns 2–1 Dalian Aerbin — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 50% versus Dalian Aerbin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 74% | Dalian Aerbin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.054 / defence 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.805 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.286. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 46 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 46.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 | Draw 3.60 | Dalian Aerbin 4.51. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 13 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 / Dalian Aerbin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.054 / def 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.805 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dalian Aerbin xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 13) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.81x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 46 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.60
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
22.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.02 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 25W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 13W 9D 12L from 34 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 17 home games (12W 1D 4L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 4D 7L from their last 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.18 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 20 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 Dalian Aerbin on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2023: Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Dalian Aerbin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Wuhan Three Towns and 71% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 47% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 71% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 62% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Three Towns's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 74%, Dalian Aerbin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.