Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chengdu Better City travel to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 9L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Chengdu Better City away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.60 PPG return is 2.30 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Shenzhen Ruby FC's 30% BTTS rate and Chengdu Better City's 30% (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Chengdu Better City 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Jun 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 2–2 Chengdu Better City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Chengdu Better City trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% versus Chengdu Better City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 53% | Chengdu Better City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.230 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.068 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.265. Chengdu Better City bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output down. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chengdu Better City's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 45 games and Chengdu Better City's last 46.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.57 | Draw 3.70 | Chengdu Better City 1.96. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 13 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 29 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 / Chengdu Better City 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / def 1.230 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.068 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Chengdu Better City xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Thursday 29 June 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 13) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 22% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 45 games and Chengdu Better City's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
22%
4.57
27%
3.70
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Chengdu Better City xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
24.11
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.66 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 10W 3D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 19W 12D 5L from 36 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.89 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 1D 12L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 4D 4L from their last 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.42 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 10W 3D 23L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 12D 5L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 23 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Oct 2023, when Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2023: Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% BTTS, Chengdu Better City 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 28% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 56% of games; Chengdu Better City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 28% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 67% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.66 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.07 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 53%, Chengdu Better City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.