Beijing Guoan 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Thursday 29 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Workers' Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Beijing Guoan, 1.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1W, SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 57% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.352 / defence 1.013 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / defence 0.552. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.265. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.552 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Beijing Guoan games / 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 25% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 25% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.02 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.352 / def 1.013 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / def 0.552 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.48
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 29 June 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 25% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.35x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.16x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
25%
4.08
29%
3.45
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.50
1.48
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.48 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 13D 17L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 33W 11D 12L from 56 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.96 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 13W 8D 7L from 28 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.73 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 33W 11D 12L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.82 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 61%, SHANGHAI SIPG 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 54% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Beijing Guoan's games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.48 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.35 / defence 1.01 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.16 / defence 0.55, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 25% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, SHANGHAI SIPG 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.62 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.