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Stunning comeback: Shandong Luneng overturn deficit to win 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng came from behind to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. It was 1-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: A. Quiles (13') · Zeca (52') · Chen Zeshi (82'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Shandong Luneng 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 82% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 78% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Shandong Luneng controlled the ball (52%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Tianjin Teda; yet the team on the ball still took it. Tianjin Teda shot more often (11 to 11, 3 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins. A comeback of the kind no pre-match model prices cleanly only underlines how much live momentum can override the numbers.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics