Shanghai Shenhua 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 68%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 38% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.20 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.352 / defence 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.848 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.400. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Shanghai Shenhua games / 39 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 68% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 12%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 68% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.20 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.352 / def 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.848 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hangzhou Greentown xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua 4 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 68% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.35x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.03
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.05
0.85
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
72.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.85 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 28W 18D 17L from 63 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 12L across 63 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.62 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 16W 8D 8L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 14W 12D 6L across 32 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 18D 17L in their last 63 games (1.62 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.75 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 59% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.20 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.85 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.35 / defence 0.71 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 68% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 12%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 38%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.