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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.57 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 33%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights