Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 40%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Qingdao Youth Island at Baoan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Baoan Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Baoan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% versus Qingdao Youth Island 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.57 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.979 / defence 1.131 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.913 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.885 / away 1.376. Data: 55 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 54 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 33%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.57 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.979 / def 1.131 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.913 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.885 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 40% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.77
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.99
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.42 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 54 games, going 13W 10D 31L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.15 PPG from 54 outings (15W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 9W 5D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 13W 10D 31L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.19 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 67% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 63% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.57 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 33%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.