Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 2–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a Shenzhen Ruby FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.848 / defence 1.193 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.157 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.218. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 37 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 38.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.46 | Draw 3.23 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.15. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.848 / def 1.193 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.157 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 5 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 22% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.16x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 37 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
22%
4.46
31%
3.23
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.68
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
23.94
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.68 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 8D 29L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (17W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.24 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 3D 15L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.29 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 August 2023: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 41%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 70% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.68 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.