Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.80 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC in recent Super League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shenzhen Ruby FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Shanghai Shenhua 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.759 / defence 1.137 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.173. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 39 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.13. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.759 / def 1.137 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.98x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
17%
5.74
35%
2.83
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.74
17%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
5%
21.33
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 17.1 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.31 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 8D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 23W 18D 14L from 55 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.11 PPG from 28 outings (9W 4D 15L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 10D 8L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 23W 18D 14L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2023, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Shanghai Shenhua 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 39% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.