Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.80 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–2 Shanghai Shenhua — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Shanghai Shenhua 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.759 / defence 1.137 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.173. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 38 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 39.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.74 | Draw 2.83 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.11. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.759 / def 1.137 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.984 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.98x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 38 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
17%
5.74
35%
2.83
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.74
17%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
5%
21.33
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 17.1 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.31 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 8D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 23W 18D 14L from 55 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 4D 15L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 10D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 23W 18D 14L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 9 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2023: Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Shanghai Shenhua 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 39% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 64% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 35% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.