Henan Jianye 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 46% versus Beijing Guoan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 40% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.33 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.913 / defence 0.850 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.985 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Henan Jianye games / 38 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 25%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Beijing Guoan 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 30% | Beijing Guoan 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Henan Jianye 1.33 / Beijing Guoan 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.913 / def 0.850 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.985 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.98x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
40%
2.50
35%
2.83
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.35
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.02 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 23W 17D 15L from 55 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 16L across 55 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.65 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 12W 4D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.49 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 16L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.89 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Beijing Guoan 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Henan Jianye) and 63% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 52% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Henan Jianye's matches and 63% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.33 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 25%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Beijing Guoan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.