SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 10W 0D 0L at Pudong Football Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 2W, Sichuan Jiuniu 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 57% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.355 / defence 0.924 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.976 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.244. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 30 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.355 / def 0.924 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.976 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (2 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.35x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.98x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.73
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.37
1.12
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
11%
9.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
55.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.12 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 25W 3D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 7W 8D 15L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.87 PPG from 15 outings (14W 1D 0L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 4D 8L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 3.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.97 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 25W 3D 2L in their last 30 games (2.60 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.87 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.87 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-6 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 73%, Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 47% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 73%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.