🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Jonoon 1.00 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 37% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.981 / defence 1.086 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.989 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.212. Data: 31 Qingdao Jonoon games / 31 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.85. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights