Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Dalian Zhixing at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huizhou Olympic Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.26 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.140 / defence 1.146 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.236. Data: 30 Hangzhou Greentown games / 0 Dalian Zhixing games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Dalian Zhixing 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.26 / Dalian Zhixing 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.140 / def 1.146 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dalian Zhixing xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 61% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 3.20 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.14x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
61%
1.63
20%
5.12
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.46
1.20
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
49.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.20 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Dalian Zhixing won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.26 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.20 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 19%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.