Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.83
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.11
1.05
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Shanghai ShenhuaDrawQingdao Jonoon
1.64
61%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
42.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.064
λ Away (xG)
1.047
Total xG
3.111
League avg home goals
1.608
League avg away goals
1.129
Shanghai Shenhua attack strength
1.324
Shanghai Shenhua defence strength
1.053
Qingdao Jonoon attack strength
0.881
Qingdao Jonoon defence strength
0.970
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
36 / 36