Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to face Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.831 / defence 1.113 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.826 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.205. Data: 2 Qingdao Youth Island games / 32 Qingdao Jonoon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 35%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Jonoon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.831 / def 1.113 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.826 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Qingdao Jonoon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 37% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.83) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.83x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.49
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.26
1.11
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.11 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 35%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.