Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024, 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 0.90 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.87 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.041 / defence 1.088 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.060 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.229. Data: 31 Qingdao Jonoon games / 31 Changchun Yatai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 3.57. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.87 / Changchun Yatai 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.041 / def 1.088 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.060 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Changchun Yatai xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 47% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.03
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.28
1.42
Changchun Yatai xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
4%
22.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.42 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 11L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.93 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.47 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Changchun Yatai 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 40% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 33%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games; Changchun Yatai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 47% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 40% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.87 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.42 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.06 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.