Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Shandong Luneng 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Shandong Luneng 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.909 / defence 1.021 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.004 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.298. Data: 33 Qingdao Jonoon games / 33 Shandong Luneng games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 43%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 / Shandong Luneng 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.909 / def 1.021 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.004 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
30%
3.39
27%
3.64
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.38
1.33
Shandong Luneng xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.33 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 7W 7D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 16W 10D 4L from 30 games, 1.93 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 8D 3L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.97 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 16W 10D 4L in their last 30 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Shandong Luneng 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 40% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 60% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 40% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 43%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Shandong Luneng 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.