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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.38 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 30% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 45%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 56%, Beijing Guoan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights