Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Youth Island face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Qingdao Youth Island are significantly better at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Qingdao Youth Island's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Beijing Guoan 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 56% | Beijing Guoan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.838 / defence 0.932 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.381 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.365. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Qingdao Youth Island games / 50 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 30% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 45%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.22. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 30% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.40 / Beijing Guoan 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.838 / def 0.932 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.381 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 30% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.84) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
30%
3.36
25%
4.00
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.15
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.47
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.76 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 17D 19L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 28W 14D 8L from 50 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Youth Island.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 11W 9D 5L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 14D 8L in their last 50 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.40 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Beijing Guoan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 56% (Beijing Guoan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 64% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.38 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 30% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 45%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 56%, Beijing Guoan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.