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Shock result as Qingdao Jonoon defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. It was 0-0 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: Y. Yeboah (60'). That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.73 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.33 against Henan Jianye attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 44%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 72% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

In-Play Signals

Henan Jianye controlled the ball (58%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they were undone despite it. Henan Jianye shot more often (18 to 7, 5 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life. 1 of the 1 goal arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics