Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Meizhou Kejia at 1.00 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 62% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Henan Jianye 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG and Henan Jianye 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.953 / defence 1.030 | Henan Jianye attack 0.832 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.203. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Meizhou Kejia games / 31 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Henan Jianye 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.15 / Henan Jianye 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.953 / def 1.030 | Henan Jianye attack 0.832 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Henan Jianye xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 39% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 2W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.95) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
39%
2.60
29%
3.43
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.18
1.03
Henan Jianye xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.03 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 16D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (18W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.02 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Henan Jianye away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 63%, Henan Jianye 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 47% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 47% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG and Henan Jianye 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Henan Jianye attack 0.83 / defence 0.74, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.