Henan Jianye 0-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.164 / defence 1.005 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.750 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.266. Data: 33 Henan Jianye games / 3 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.55. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Henan Jianye 1.62 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.164 / def 1.005 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.750 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye 0 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 53% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Henan Jianye home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.75x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.04
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.58
0.95
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
22.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.95 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 4-1 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Henan Jianye 0-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.95 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.