Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Meizhou Kejia at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Meizhou Kejia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Meizhou Kejia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 4–0 with Nantong Zhiyun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 57% and Meizhou Kejia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Meizhou Kejia 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.30 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.903 / defence 1.161 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.032 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.310. Data: 33 Nantong Zhiyun games / 33 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 44%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Meizhou Kejia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Meizhou Kejia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.30 / Meizhou Kejia 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.903 / def 1.161 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.032 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 32% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (2 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 1W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.90x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
32%
3.16
25%
4.05
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.87
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.57 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantong Zhiyun's recent record stands at 4W 10D 16L from 30 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.73 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantong Zhiyun have managed 2W 4D 9L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's season.
The Goals Picture
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 games (0.73 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Nantong Zhiyun's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.67 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2024, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 47%, Meizhou Kejia 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 67% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 73% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 67% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.30 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 44%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Nantong Zhiyun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 33%, Meizhou Kejia 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantong Zhiyun win broke the near-deadlock. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.