Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.68
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.15
1.13
Shandong Luneng xG
Henan JianyeDrawShandong Luneng
1.73
58%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
3%
35.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.012
λ Away (xG)
1.134
Total xG
3.146
League avg home goals
1.932
League avg away goals
1.157
Henan Jianye attack strength
0.901
Henan Jianye defence strength
0.965
Shandong Luneng attack strength
1.015
Shandong Luneng defence strength
1.156
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
34 / 34