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Last-gasp drama as Hangzhou Greentown snatch the points — Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown found a late winner to edge Henan Jianye 0-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. It was 0-1 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: A. Mitrita (31') · Tao Qianglong (90'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 85% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Henan Jianye controlled the ball (65%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they were undone despite it. Henan Jianye shot more often (20 to 6, 6 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (0-1 at the interval). 1 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics