Hebei Zhongji 0-7 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Shandong Luneng to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 2.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shandong Luneng 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (34 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (34 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Shandong Luneng 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 41% | Shandong Luneng 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.832 / defence 1.447 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.103 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.189. Data: 26 Hebei Zhongji games / 26 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 19% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 59%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Shandong Luneng 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 19% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.98 / Shandong Luneng 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.832 / def 1.447 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.103 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Shandong Luneng xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 7 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 19% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
19%
5.21
22%
4.53
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.88
1.90
Shandong Luneng xG
5.21
19%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
34.77
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.90 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 7W 7D 20L from 34 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 3L across 34 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 1.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 5W 4D 9L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 11W 4D 3L across 18 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.03 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 20L in their last 34 games (0.82 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 6D 3L in their last 34 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.06 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 44%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hebei Zhongji) and 44% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 44%; Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 44% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 0-7 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.90 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.90 projection by 5.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 19% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 59%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 41%, Shandong Luneng 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (34 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (34 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.