Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Guangzhou R&F to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guangzhou R&F — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Meizhou Kejia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Guangzhou R&F in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 58% versus Guangzhou R&F 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 42% | Guangzhou R&F 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.75 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.044 / defence 1.057 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.759 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.243. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Meizhou Kejia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Meizhou Kejia games / 26 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 55% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou R&F 21%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Guangzhou R&F 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 83% | Guangzhou R&F 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 55% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou R&F 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.75 / Guangzhou R&F 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.044 / def 1.057 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.759 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 17 August 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 55% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.25
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
26.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.00 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 5D 2L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 0W 0D 12L from 12 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Meizhou Kejia are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guangzhou R&F.
Venue Form
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 0.42 scored and 2.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 0D 12L in their last 12 (0.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F?
From 2 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 0-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 80%, Guangzhou R&F 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Meizhou Kejia and 40% for Guangzhou R&F. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Guangzhou R&F?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Guangzhou R&F 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Guangzhou R&F 2-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.75 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 55% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou R&F 21%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 42%, Guangzhou R&F 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.