Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Changchun Yatai 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 1–4 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 46% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.901 / defence 0.946 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.993 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.189. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Tianjin Teda games / 25 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 3.70. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Changchun Yatai 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.57 / Changchun Yatai 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.901 / def 0.946 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.993 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Changchun Yatai xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 48% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.90) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.98
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.69
1.12
Changchun Yatai xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 10W 8D 15L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 8L across 33 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.12 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
6
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 62%, Changchun Yatai 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tianjin Teda) and 62% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 31%; Changchun Yatai in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Tianjin Teda's games and 56% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai finished level at 2-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 27%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 46%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.