Henan Jianye 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Henan Jianye's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 42% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 36% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.35 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.399 / defence 1.016 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.680 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.296. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Henan Jianye games / 28 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 69% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 69% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Henan Jianye 2.35 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.399 / def 1.016 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.680 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 69% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.40) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.68x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.36
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.24
0.90
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
10%
10.45
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
1%
86.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.90 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 15W 12D 9L from 36 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 14L across 36 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.50 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 11W 4D 2L from 17 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 6W 2D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 15W 12D 9L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.18 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-1 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 53%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Henan Jianye) and 41% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 35% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 41% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.35 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.90 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.40 / defence 1.02 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 69% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 36%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.58 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.