Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 37%, yet in-form Dalian Aerbin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Chongqing Lifan make the trip to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League (Relegation Round - 6). The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Dalian Aerbin (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 1D 6L from their last 9 home games — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.

Chongqing Lifan's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Chongqing Lifan's away record over their last 9 away games: 0W 2D 7L (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Dalian Aerbin's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chongqing Lifan's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 0 for Chongqing Lifan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2021, ended Dalian Aerbin 1–0 Chongqing Lifan — a Dalian Aerbin win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Chongqing Lifan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 47% versus Chongqing Lifan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 53% | Chongqing Lifan 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.846 / defence 1.372 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.759 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Dalian Aerbin's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Lifan's projected output up. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 14 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 14.

Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 32% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 37%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.08 | Draw 3.25 | Chongqing Lifan 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Aerbin (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 44% (last 9 home games) | Chongqing Lifan 78% (last 9 away games).

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