Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 37%, yet in-form Dalian Aerbin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Lifan make the trip to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Relegation Round - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 1D 6L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Chongqing Lifan's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan's away record: 0W 2D 7L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Dalian Aerbin's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chongqing Lifan's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dalian Aerbin lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Chongqing Lifan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 47% versus Chongqing Lifan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 53% | Chongqing Lifan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.846 / defence 1.372 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.759 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Dalian Aerbin games / 14 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 32% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 37%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Chongqing Lifan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Aerbin (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 44% | Chongqing Lifan 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 32% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.25 / Chongqing Lifan 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.846 / def 1.372 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.759 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Chongqing Lifan xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 32% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 1W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Lifan 0W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.85) and Chongqing Lifan's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.76x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.25
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.34
Chongqing Lifan xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.34 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 5W 1D 13L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Lifan, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 12L across 19 games — 0.68 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.68 for Chongqing Lifan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 2W 1D 6L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chongqing Lifan's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 0.95 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 13L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 4D 12L in their last 19 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 0.78 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 28 December 2021, when Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Chongqing Lifan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 44%, Chongqing Lifan 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dalian Aerbin) and 56% (Chongqing Lifan).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Chongqing Lifan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 78% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 56% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chongqing Lifan edge out Dalian Aerbin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.34 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.76 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 32% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 37%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 53%, Chongqing Lifan 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.84 PPG, Chongqing Lifan 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chongqing Lifan win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.