Vancouver FC 0-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 04:00 UK time.
Current Form
Vancouver FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Atlético Ottawa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and Atlético Ottawa's last 10 away games) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Atlético Ottawa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 58% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 63% | Atlético Ottawa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.06 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / defence 1.090 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.151 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.174. Atlético Ottawa bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Vancouver FC's projected output down. Data: built from Vancouver FC's last 41 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 41.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.77 | Draw 3.66 | Atlético Ottawa 2.17. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vancouver FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 04:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Vancouver FC 1.06 / Atlético Ottawa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / def 1.090 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.151 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa FAQs
What time does Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 04:00 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Vancouver FC 0 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 27% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.97) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.15x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Vancouver FC's last 41 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
27%
3.77
27%
3.66
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.47 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 13W 9D 19L from 41 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 14L across 41 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.49 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 8W 4D 7L from their last 19 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atlético Ottawa's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across their last 19 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.49 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Vancouver FC (Home) vs Atlético Ottawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vancouver FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa Form FAQs
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC on 19 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Vancouver FC have won 2, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 August 2026: Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 58%, Atlético Ottawa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Vancouver FC) and 42% (Atlético Ottawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 32%; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Vancouver FC's games and 53% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Vancouver FC's matches and 42% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 74% of Atlético Ottawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 0-3 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.06 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 63%, Atlético Ottawa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.17 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.