Valour 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Princess Auto Stadium to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Princess Auto Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Valour, 1.30 for Cavalry FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valour lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Cavalry FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 40% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.10 xG and Cavalry FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.928 / defence 1.026 | Cavalry FC attack 0.750 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.172. Data: 40 Valour games / 40 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 38% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Cavalry FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 38% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Valour 1.10 / Cavalry FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.928 / def 1.026 | Cavalry FC attack 0.750 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Valour (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cavalry FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Record (3 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.93) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.75x) against Valour's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.96
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Valour xG
Total xG
2.01
0.90
Cavalry FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Valour and 0.90 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 9W 9D 22L from 40 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 9L across 40 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valour heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 5W 4D 9L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.06 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 44%, Cavalry FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Valour) and 44% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 33% of games; Cavalry FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valour's recent matches and 61% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valour's recent games and 44% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 0-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.10 xG and Cavalry FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Cavalry FC attack 0.75 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 38% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 28%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 40%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.