Valour 1-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valour at Princess Auto Stadium this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
York United (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Valour 1W, York United 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 1–3 with York United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 52% versus York United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 38% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.62 xG and York United 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.974 / defence 1.201 | York United attack 1.034 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.129. Data: 39 Valour games / 39 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 31% | York United 30%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | York United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | York United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 31% | York United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 64% | xG Valour 1.62 / York United 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.974 / def 1.201 | York United attack 1.034 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Valour (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.40
York United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 1 - 0 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 39% chance of winning, York United a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Record (3 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 0 | York United 2W.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.97x the league average against York United's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.03x) against Valour's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
39%
2.53
31%
3.26
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Valour xG
Total xG
3.02
1.40
York United xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Valour and 1.40 for York United, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 15D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.29 PPG from 56 outings (20W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Valour against 1.29 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.36 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 43%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Valour) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valour's recent matches and 54% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valour's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Valour edge out York United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 1-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.62 xG and York United 1.40 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against York United attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 39% | Draw 31% | York United 30%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 38%, York United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.12 PPG, York United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.