Valour 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valour face Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Tuesday 10 September 2024 at 02:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Valour have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atlético Ottawa away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Valour, 3 for Atlético Ottawa and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended Valour 2–2 Atlético Ottawa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 53% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 47% | Atlético Ottawa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.14 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.847 / defence 1.051 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.192 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.153. Data: built from Valour's last 49 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 49.
Result probabilities: Valour 30% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 44%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.36 | Draw 3.83 | Atlético Ottawa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valour 40% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 September 2024 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 30% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Valour 1.14 / Atlético Ottawa 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.847 / def 1.051 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.192 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Atlético Ottawa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa FAQs
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Tuesday 10 September 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 30% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.85x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.19x) against Valour's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Valour's last 49 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
30%
3.36
26%
3.83
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Valour xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Valour and 1.45 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Valour have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 11D 26L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 20W 12D 17L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Atlético Ottawa are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.09 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 4D 12L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 10W 4D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.49 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour (Home) vs Atlético Ottawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valour
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Form FAQs
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.09 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won Atlético Ottawa 5-2 Valour on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 48%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Valour) and 52% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 35%; Valour have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Valour's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Valour's recent games and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Valour's recent matches and 70% of Atlético Ottawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 1-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.14 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.19 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 30% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 44%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 47%, Atlético Ottawa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.