Atlético Ottawa 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to TD Place Stadium to face Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Atlético Ottawa, 1.10 for Vancouver FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Vancouver FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atlético Ottawa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 3–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 52% versus Vancouver FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 48% | Vancouver FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.99 xG and Vancouver FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.137 / defence 1.183 | Vancouver FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.224. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Vancouver FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Atlético Ottawa games / 48 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 42% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Vancouver FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Vancouver FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 42% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.99 / Vancouver FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.137 / def 1.183 | Vancouver FC attack 1.262 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Vancouver FC xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 42% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Record (1 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 1W | Draws 0 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.26x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.41
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.82
1.83
Vancouver FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.83 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 12D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (15W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.15 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Vancouver FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.43 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Vancouver FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
4
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 52%, Vancouver FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atlético Ottawa) and 65% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 61% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 65% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.99 xG and Vancouver FC 1.83 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.18 against Vancouver FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 42% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 35%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 48%, Vancouver FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.44 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.