Forge 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 September 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 2.10 PPG, Cavalry FC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 51% versus Cavalry FC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 57% | Cavalry FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.40 xG and Cavalry FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.361 / defence 0.749 | Cavalry FC attack 0.965 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.178. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Forge's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Forge games / 49 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 50% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 4.35. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 50% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Forge 1.40 / Cavalry FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.361 / def 0.749 | Cavalry FC attack 0.965 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Forge (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cavalry FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 8 September 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 50% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.65
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Forge xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Cavalry FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Forge and 0.85 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 14D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.78 PPG from 51 outings (25W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 65%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 24W 14D 13L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 25W 16D 10L in their last 51 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 58%, Cavalry FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Forge) and 42% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Forge's games and 62% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Forge's recent games and 42% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.40 xG and Cavalry FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.36 / defence 0.75 against Cavalry FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 50% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 23%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 57%, Cavalry FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.