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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Group Stage as Supra du Quebec welcome Pacific FC to CEPSUM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Pacific FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Team Stats

Across 28 matches this season, Pacific FC have gone 5W 8D 15L. They average 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 28 games (14%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.61 xG and Pacific FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.968 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 40% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Pacific FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Supra du Quebec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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