Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Group Stage as Vancouver FC welcome Pacific FC to Willoughby Community Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 June 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Vancouver FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Vancouver FC have won 3, Pacific FC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Team Stats
Vancouver FC have played 28 games this season, recording 4W 9D 15L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 2.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 28 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.14 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 5W 8D 15L from their 28 Canadian Premier League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 2.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 28 games (14%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.
Pacific FC lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Vancouver FC 3/3 vs Pacific FC 5/5 this season.
In-Play Profile
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 61% versus Pacific FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 55% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.85 xG and Pacific FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.982 / defence 1.046 | Pacific FC attack 0.970 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 49% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 4.00. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | Pacific FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC • Managers: Vancouver FC (A. Ghotbi) | Pacific FC (J. Merriman) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Vancouver FC 3W | Draws 4 | Pacific FC 2W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Vancouver FC 15 – 15 Pacific FC • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Vancouver FC 33% / Draw 44% / Pacific FC 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 49% / draw 26% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.33 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.14 (61% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D • Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L • Vancouver FC home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Pacific FC away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: Vancouver FC lead by 0.50 PPG (1.00 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Vancouver FC): Poisson projects 1.85 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Pacific FC): Poisson projects 1.29 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.14 (61% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Vancouver FC — Vancouver FC at 49% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 49% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Vancouver FC 1.85 / Pacific FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.982 / def 1.046 | Pacific FC attack 0.970 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Pacific FC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 14 June 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 49% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vancouver FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
• Record (9 meetings): Vancouver FC 3W | Draws 4 | Pacific FC 2W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Vancouver FC 15 – 15 Pacific FC • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Vancouver FC 33% / Draw 44% / Pacific FC 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 49% / draw 26% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.33 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.14 (61% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in?
• Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D • Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L • Vancouver FC home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Pacific FC away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: Vancouver FC lead by 0.50 PPG (1.00 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Vancouver FC): Poisson projects 1.85 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Pacific FC): Poisson projects 1.29 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.14 (61% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Vancouver FC — Vancouver FC at 49% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture