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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Supra du Quebec and York United meet at CEPSUM Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Current Form

York United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Stats

York United have played 30 games this season, recording 11W 8D 11L. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 30 games (20%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.53 xG and York United 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | York United attack 0.966 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 33%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | York United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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