Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Cavalry FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Pacific FC, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
The historical record gives Cavalry FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 61% versus Pacific FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 54% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.95 xG and Pacific FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.984 | Pacific FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 53% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Pacific FC 4.55. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Pacific FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 53% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.95 / Pacific FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / def 0.984 | Pacific FC attack 0.964 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 3 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 53% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 5W | Draws 3 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.96
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.20
Pacific FC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
3%
32.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.20 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 26W 19D 12L from 57 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 28L across 57 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 14W 10D 4L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 4W 7D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 26W 19D 12L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 64%, Pacific FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cavalry FC) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cavalry FC's games and 46% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 3-0 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.95 xG and Pacific FC 1.20 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Pacific FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 53% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 22%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 54%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.